CYCLE MAP: AUGUST 2025

Entering into the mid point of the 3rd quarter and off the indexes its been 4 months since the panic lows of April 2025. For the indexes, It has been a wild ride the first 4 and half months and since then its been mainly one directional with a couple of pauses along the way. You made new highs out off all this drama and now markets are entering into months that have lots of history causing some discomfort.

That discomfort tends to usher in a decent low to play and retest where the breaks come from. If 2025 has taught anything, expect the unexpected but there have been so many raids (heists) this year I have lost count. No matter what the news has been the equity complex continues to climb any wall of worry but as Feb and some of March proved when bears can get their teeth into the meat of moves it can get quite loose.

As August approaches the cycle skew is very different than July’s, does this mean some significant change? No, very much far from it but it could lead to a few surprises.