CYCLE MAP: AUGUST UPDATE
Oh the winds of change….or has it been. This one has and is something else but is it surprising? Lots of emotion in since last Wednesday affecting everything. Going to try to give my feeble take here and re read these tea leaves, this move seen in the indexes is something else and I am still trying to get my head around some key warnings that have ultimately failed…..miserably.
One of the things I always preach (and once again experiencing) is:
“when a major read (indicator print) fires and it has a lean, it matches current cycle skew but…..nothing happens OR a slow roll, you have to be on guard becasue that energy HAS to expend somewhere”
Case in point, there has been 2 periods in 2026, Feb and this June/July where the 2 main indexes, both NQ and ES fired Yellows warning of a significant trend move. Feb slow rolled but did affect ALL indexes and made its low (as advertised) end of March. Did I expect new highs or retest of Jan highs out of that low? No. But it happened. Fast forward to June/July and more prints this time and heavier for higher prints. Add in the potential for a deeper pull back from that Rally off the March low and a recipe was set for a press much lower. Targets for ES was 7100/7200 (MINIMUM) and NQ into the 26k area (that’s what I was planning for).
I knew that from end of July (from July 22nd into month end) ALL the cycles were part and parcel of LOW cycles (LOW Traits). Original thesis was looking for a 3 to 4 year cycle low at the end of July but with the slow roll and limited and 100% different action in all 4 of the main US indexes I felt this was way off and took that off the table.
Enter last week…..end of July specifically Wednesday July 29th 2026.
Its been launch up ever since. Whats crazy to me is the way the indexes are reacting is like that week was a 3 to 4 year cycle low. So…..I am confused here.
You have had a biblical launch and its taken so many by surprise (I raise my hand). I knew a possibility of one but nothing lined up for me to say this is one. I have missed ALL of this.
IMHO you have seen a bear fail - a filed signal - off the daily’s for ES and somewhat NQ and thats why this is so damn violent. NQ somewhat played nice while ES….said GFYS and rage baited everyone off that 7523 (this level will be critical in the future). Failed signals/Turns tend to be 2x’s as worse than what the original signal should be, the moves are violent and non forgiving just look at Aug 4th’s action, its been relentless.
So what now?