As June rapidly approaches its end the road map for 2025 has taken quite the route.
Oddly enough (to my surprise) I am once again (sorta) impressed in how the cycles + indicator been able to navigate at times. Has it been perfect? No. Have I been able to get it correct all the time? No. But the process has been decent out of all this noise and I am still haunted by that Feb turn, it is something that troubles me each and every day.
Review so far and here is the ES 480 min chart as a road Map. I knew that the late Jan (Jan 25th to be exact) cycles were tops. this played very well but I did not expect them to usher in (so far) “The Top” for the year and now this looks to be retested soon. Then Feb…..boy did I read this wrong but once March hit I knew that mid March would be a LOW. Add in the Pinks and it started and did play out. Then late March came and this also had Bottom or looking for LOW reads but the markets had other plans. That was a fail and this lead to the early April LOW cycles but when markets break below Pink Prints those moves are always violent.
The Pinks and LOW cycles in early April worked extremely well and since then, especially after the Yellows and that KEY cycle print off the Easter weekend everything shifted. Sentiment, structure all of it shifted on the indexes and all went back to pre Feb 2025 reads/trade where….no matter what you buy the dip.
Early May 2025 had nothing (for almost a week and then some) bear cycles but (and I was very vocal of this) I was worried that there would be no pull back, it would be shallow, very shallow and this became the case. Worse is in May there were only 2 real turns, May 19th and may 23rd and worse (for me) the May 19th cycle was a LOW (All the traits were lows) but the indicator was firing tops and was 100% in conflict with the read. That said all the market did was trade sideways with in the print and within the cycle until that May 23rd cycle that matched the April 19th one. BOTH of those 2 cycles marked KEY swing LOWS and both those periods have not be retested (important for the future).
Now June. June 2nd and June 20th both very important for the Bulls and each of those periods have marked key turns. The June 20th one much more so even with all the Geo political Drama going on. Add in those Yellows and as stated that the 480 min was within a hair of printing another Yellow (was and would be extremely bullish if it did print) the indexes (ES and NQ more so) were building more energy still and markets are proving that still.